Led by improvements in striped bass (rockfish), oyster, and shad populations, the Chesapeake Bay’s health improved slightly in the past year, according to the Chesapeake Bay Foundation’s 1999 State of the Bay Report. The modest gains were offset, however, by increasing pressures on blue crabs and Virginia wetlands. There were no long-term trends evident in other factors crucial to the Bay’s health, such as water clarity and pollution. On a scale of 100, CBF pegs the Bay’s health at 28, one point higher than in 1998.

"On the whole, 1999 was a very mixed year for the Bay," said CBF President William C. Baker. "While the Bay shows a few encouraging signs of improving health, it remains a system dangerously out of balance. Key systems are distressed and it operates at barely more than one-quarter of its historical potential."

In an attempt to accelerate Bay restoration efforts, CBF has challenged the Chesapeake Bay Program, the government partnership working to clean up the Bay, to adopt a series of ambitious goals for the year 2010, along with a specific action plan to achieve them. The plan was sent to the Bay Program last week. The 2010 goals include a 50 percent reduction from 1987 levels in total nitrogen and phosphorus loading to the Bay. Building on momentum of oyster restoration, CBF’s goal is that 10,000 acres of the Bay’s traditional oyster grounds should be set aside as sanctuaries that incorporate 1,000 acres of rebuilt three-dimensional reefs. Another 10,000 acres of oyster grounds in the vicinity of the sanctuaries should be rehabilitated as harvest bars open to watermen.

In addition to improvements in oysters, striped bass, and shad, CBF’s State of the Bay ratings for water clarity, nitrogen, and phosphorus each improved slightly. The 1999 drought has reduced runoff and stream flows, resulting in less nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as sediment, reaching the Bay’s waters. This slight improvement is likely to reverse, however, when rains come and nitrogen and phosphorus, now held in the dry soils, quickly enter the Bay.

"Water pollution from excessive nitrogen and phosphorus remains the Bay’s most serious problem," said CBF President Baker, "and it will continue to be until there is a long-term, Baywide trend towards reduced levels of these polluting nutrients."

The State of the Bay Report, which CBF issued for the first time last year, is a comprehensive measure of the Bay’s health. For the report, CBF analyzed 13 factors: oysters, shad, underwater grasses, wetlands, forested buffers, toxics, water clarity, dissolved oxygen, crabs, striped bass (rockfish), resource lands, phosphorus, and nitrogen. CBF scientists compiled and examined the best available historical and up-to-date information on each factor and sought direction and advice from other scientists who study the Bay. Then CBF assigned an index number to each indicator. For example, the index value of 12 given to underwater grasses indicates that this key resource today covers only 12 percent of its historical acreage in the Bay and tributaries. The rating for rockfish, which have rebounded from near collapse in the mid-1980s, improved from a 70 to 75 because of an increased number of larger, older fish, which should help the species maximize spawning potential.

Taken together, the measure of these indicators offers an immediate description of Bay health. The unspoiled Bay, described by Captain John Smith’s exploration narratives from the 1600s and confirmed in part by modern science, serves as CBF’s benchmark. That original Bay, with its clear water, abundant fish and oysters, and lush growths of submerged vegetation, rates a 100 on CBF’s scale. The average index value of the 13 indicators evaluated by CBF for today’s Bay is 28.

The restoration action plan submitted by CBF to the Bay Program has been endorsed by six other major environmental organizations. They are: World Wildlife Fund, American Oceans Campaign, Restore American’s Estuaries, Coast Alliance, Center for Marine Conservation, and Clean Water Action.

"On balance, the Bay is in somewhat better shape than it was 15 years ago," said Baker. "But for every success story, like rockfish, there are continued declines, like the loss of more than 60 percent of Tangier Sound’s underwater grasses in just seven years." Baker also cited particular threats to wetlands in Virginia precipitated by a court ruling (the "Tulloch" decision) that re-opened a loophole that allows the ditching and draining of wetlands. "Tulloch ditching represents one of the most serious threats to the Bay in the last 30 years," he said.

"We’ll never see a Bay that is as pristine as that which John Smith saw," said Baker. "But we believe that if citizens of the watershed demand the Bay’s restoration and pitch-in and if the Bay Program commits to reaching these ambitious we can take the Bay’s health to at least a score of 50 by the year 2010. We must remember how rich our Bay once was, and not settle for a small fraction of what we know it can be."

To find a copy of the report -- http://www.cbf.org/state_of_the_bay/sotbr_99_a.htm.